The climate phenomenon known as El Niño, which contributes to rising global temperatures, has officially begun. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that El Niño conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific Ocean after sea surface temperatures exceeded the critical threshold of 0.5°C above average.
What is alarming meteorologists is the high confidence among computer models that this event could develop into a “Super El Niño,” potentially becoming one of the strongest recorded since 1950. Forecasts from both American and European weather models, including ECMWF, suggest temperatures could rise as much as 3°C above normal by the end of the year.
The phenomenon is unfolding on a planet already significantly warmed by human activity. Experts warn that the most severe impacts could be felt across the global economy, food supply chains, and weather systems, with an intense heat peak expected to affect much of the world by 2027.
While weather agencies in the United States and Japan (JMA) have officially declared the onset of El Niño, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) remains more cautious due to its stricter criteria. However, it also acknowledges that conditions in the Pacific are rapidly moving toward this extreme scenario.
Scientists are closely monitoring developments, as a strong El Niño has historically been associated with record-breaking temperatures, droughts, floods, wildfires, and major disruptions to agriculture and global markets.
